Recent posts – Page 12

To accurately ‘read people’ look for combinations of non-verbal tells

The glossary of non-verbal signals and their meaning makes you aware of the limitations of Zoom, Teams, and Skype, espacially in COVID times.

The ignorance of the Trump administration when it comes to the inner workings of government creates immense risks

Michael Lewis – The Fifth Risk

The book should be mainly read for the anecdotes on female astronauts and nerdy coast guards.

Without massive and violent disruption of the established order, there will be no meaningful redistribution of wealth

The great leveler – Walter Scheidel

Next to revolution (in the spirit of Marx), the book claims there are just three other forces strong enough to achieve leveling: mass warfare, epidemics, and system collapse (the last of which is arguably overlaps with the others).

For a democratic leader, waging war is a balancing act between ethics, national interests and electoral impact

Michael Beschloss – Presidents of war

In choosing the personal perspective of the leader, makes the book prone to the narrative fallacy.

21; or a different number

In COVID times, we are constantly bombarded with figures, statistics, and bold claims. How many people will die? On average, how long do patients stay in ICU? How many ICU bed will be needed? How long will it take to flatten the curve?

Some of these figures will turn out to be true. Others less so. And many will be structurally biased.

This is best illustrated by an innocent example: The most successful weatherman is not the one who makes the most accurate prediction of rain or shine, but the one who predicts rain a bit too often. No-one will blame him when it turns out to be a sunny day. A faulty prediction of sunshine will be less appreciated by his audience.

Similarly, it is best to over-estimate the number of ICU beds you need two weeks from now. That is just proper risk management.

Just be aware: correctly interpreting the figures you see in the news may require game theory as much as it requires statistics.

The US constitution has always been used as a tool for suppression

Jill Lepore – These truths

The author weaves the perspective of women, slaves, and other disadvantaged grouped into the narrative of US history, making the work part of a bigger movement.

The US is losing out in AI, due to a lack of long-term vision and direction

Amy Webb – The big nine

The book’s set-up with multiple scenarios for the future works surprisingly well and is especiall concerning for European readers: Europe is almost completely irrelevant in all of Webb’s scenarios.

There is a big difference between leaking and wistle blowing

Edward Snowden – Permanent record

Extensive justification of why Snowden exposed the scope of surveillance by the NSA (with too many references to patriotic US heros among Snowden’s ancestors).

Following the rise of Jim Simons’ Renaissance, quants have become a major force in US politics

Gregory Zuckerman – the man who solved the market

The book would have been a better read if it had focused on one of its two narratives: the rise of algorithmic trading and the forays of hedge fund executives into US politics.

Over the past 170 years Japan’s perception of itself has changed radically – multiple times

Christopher Harding – Japan Story

The author provides a richness of perspectives that guide the reader beyond clichés.

“Our program is the ‘story’ and the problem you are trying to solve the ‘idea'”

Charles Severance – Python for everybody

A highly recommended introduction to coding for aspiring data scientists, providing a rare mix of fundamentals and well-chosen practical examples.

One can obtain elegant mathematical insights without becoming overly formalistic

Paul Lockhart / Measurement

An elegantly narrated exploration of mathematics , heavily lening on our intuition for time and space (thereby defyingL.E.J. Brouwer‘s adaption of Kant).

Humans and the crops they grow are codependent

Michael Pollan – The botany of desire

To unlock creativity, make sure you get the culture right

Ed Catmull – Creativity, Inc.

The best quote is not from the author: “Quality is the best business plan” (John Lasseter, director of Toy Story).

Measurement = data-driven reduction of uncertainty

Douglas Hubbard – How to measure anything

A lot of Fermi-type deconstruction of drivers, Monte Carlo simulations, and value estimates .

The contemporary art market bubble is kept afloat by a handful of mega dealers

Michael Shnayerson – Boom

The metroric rise of art prices is a fascinating topic, but the author get a bit lost in his effort to ducoment each twist or turn in the lives of the secondary characters in his story.

In Western societies the uneducated are outcasts, which poses systemic threats for democracy

Paul Collier – The future of capitalism

The author’s recommended retun to a local solidarity may address the issue at hand, but will also pose significant threats for ‘diversity and inclusion’.