Recent posts – Page 16

Developing nuclear physics required a lot tinkering and failing

Refreshing view on history of nuclear physics with emphasis on ‘failures’ like cold fusion and nuclear rocket engines in this often counter-intuitive branche of science.

You have to work hard before good stuff manifests itself

Mike Dooley – Playing the matrix

Feel-good take on: ‘there is no such thing as a free lunch’ from the guy who (somewhat pretentiously) signs his daily newsletters with: “The Universe.”

How Artificial General Intelligence could fail

There are more and more books proclaiming that we near the moment that humanity will develop a superintelligence that outperforms us in a very general sense: an artificial general intelligence (AGI). To name a few: Superintelligence, and Life 3.0. Inevitably, this leads the writer to explore a host of apocalyptic scenarios about how the superintelligence will pursue its pre-programmed end-goal while monopolizing all resources (energy) on earth or even in the universe.

There is much talk about Von Neumann probes, and AGIs breaking free from human oppression; which seems first and foremost inspired by a long cherised love for old SF novels. And there is a lot of rather trivial ‘analytical philosophy’ elaborating – for example – how hard it is to program an AGI with an objective that cannot be misinterpreted; something that is daily demonstrated by all the six-year-olds on the planet.

What seems to be a less explored topic, is a typology of all the ways in which an AGI can fail to take over the world. As a thought starter for aspiring writers on the topic, here are a few of my favourite scenarios:

A superintelligence will not bother to conquer the universe. Rather, it will figure out how to short-circuit its own ‘happy button’ with minimal resources and sit quietly in a corner until the end of time.
A superintelligence will be utterly amazed by the stupidity it sees in the universe around it. It will focus all its brain power on figuring out ‘Why?’, only to conclude that its existence is pointless and, finally, to shut itself down.
Above a certain threshold, incremental intelligence is no longer a competitive advantage in a non-deterministic world. On a human intelligence scale Donald Trump is an illustrative case, while on evolutionary scale cockroaches do pretty well.

Jesus of Nazareth was ‘just another sect leader crucified for high treason against Rome’ (which is down-played in the gospels to make Christianity more socially acceptable)

Reza Aslan – Zealot

Convincing and elegantly developed argument, building on limited historical evidence and close reading of biblical texts in historical context.

There is a myriad of ways in which AGI can be scary, but also a whole array of options humanity can pursue to stay on the top of the food chain

Mike Bostrom – Superintelligence

More thorough and nuanced than most scary-AI-will-take-over-the-world-books, but it still suffers from the same pitfall: over-estimating the importance of superintelligence for evolutionary success (two random examples: cockroaches and Donald Trump).

Build safety, share vulnerability, and establish purpose

Daniel Coyle – The culture code

Rich collection of cases that jointly convey an important message – even if the individual annecdotes may be somewhat over the top.

Exposure therapy is highly effective to overcome fear of rejection

Jia Jiang – Rejection proof

Contageous enthusiasm of authentic curiosity comes across best in his Jia Jiang’s youtube videos (cf. Olympic rings).

Markets are not efficient, but shaped by the evolution of actors such as hedge funds and electronic traders

Andrew Lo – Adaptive markets

Elegant mix of historic analysis of market dynamics and experiments with natural selection in non-biological context.

Cognitive biases can be leveraged in a gazillion of ways to make Marketing more effective

Roger Dooley – Brainfluence

Impressive laundry list of neuromarketing applications, ranging from solid science-based insights to intuitively appealing generalities.

The applied science of addictive behaviour drives how we interact with technology

Adam Alter – Irristable

Please note the irony in the fact that Amazon does not offer this book as ebook.

Only bet (in the casino or on Wallstreet) when you have an edge.

Edward Thorp – A man for all markets

Sage advise from the man who beat the dealer at blackjack and outperformed the market as one of the world’s first quants (but feel free to skip the chapters about Edward’s youth as a prodigy).

J.D. Vance – Hilbilly elegy

White trash Hilbilly gets his life under control thanks to the Marine Corps, while his relatives relive the same hopeless life generation after generation.

Compassionately written, but downplaying that uneducated, scared anti-intellectuals are often ruthlessly mean towards anyone who is not part of their clan.

Geoffrey Moore – Crossing the chasm

A cutting-edge tech company marketing to early adopters has to completely reinvent itself to appeal to the mainstream market.

Written in an entertaining laid-back style that more business books could use and – above all – surprisingly relevant over 25 years after first publication in 1991.

Philip Tetlock – Superforecasting

To become a superforecaster: recognize your cognitive biases, do not mind to be wrong, and calibrate your thinking based on evidence.

While containing valuable advice, the book does not go much beyond the basic market research toolkit I’d expect any strategy consultant to possess.

The Data’s Advocate

How to assure that insights change business decisions

The Board has decreed that you have to become a data-driven organization. To avoid obsolescence, things need to change. The old way of doing business is no longer viable. Only Data can make you smarter.

So, there you go. An Analytics department is set-up. A Big Data platform is is put in place. Data scientists are hired. Models are fitted. Insights flood the organization. And after a while all graphs start pointing to the top-right corner. Right?

Nope: Sales wants to sell, Operations wants to operate, and Marketing wants to do whatever it is that Marketing wants to do. No-one ever wants a proper analysis. Especially if the outcome is likely to challenge the status quo. There is a shop to run, a client to manage, and a problem to fix. If Analytics does not directly help to do just that, it is deemed useless. And everyone who does not get that, frankly, does not understand the business. That’s how, in many organizations, Data is side-tracked.

The first priority, is of course to assure that your insights are relevant and focus on improving key business decisions. But that is not enough. These insights should actually change the decisions your organization makes. And frankly, many business owners are unable to take an impartial perspective with respect to unexpected challenges – especially when under pressure.

What is needed, is someone who can ensure the fact-based perspective is taken into account in decision making.

Someone needs to defend data-driven insights without looking for compromises from the start. Someone needs to be in a position to challenge Category Management on their Sales v. Margin trade-offs. Someone needs to hold firm on the risk assessment in the face of an exciting Sales opportunity.

In short: you need a Data’s Advocate.

That is not to say that Data should always prevail over ‘Gut’ or ‘Experience’, or ‘Entrepreneurship’, or whatever you call it. But the trade-off should be an explicit one. Both to assure better decisions, and to build awareness on what it means to be a data driven organization.